“That Model Failed”: Iranian Analyst in Colombia Discusses the Possible Fall of the Iranian Regime and the Risk of Hezbollah in the Region

Iranian historian and analyst Pedram Fanian speaks with SEMANA about the possibilities of the Iranian regime falling amidst harsh protests in the country. He also warns about Hezbollah's infiltration into Colombia and the wider region.

SEMANA: What is your history with Iran and how did you end up in Colombia?

Pedram Fanian: We left Iran after the Islamic Revolution. My father left first because he had held a position in the previous government. At that time, there was a lot of chaos at the airport, and he managed to leave just after Ayatollah Khomeini arrived. Later, we left with my mother and brother. We went to Canada, where we began life as refugees.

Furthermore, we belong to a persecuted religious minority in Iran: the Bahá'í Faith. Because of its peaceful beliefs, modernity, and certain theological postulates that contradict Islamic dogmas, this community has been historically persecuted. Since then, I haven't been able to return to Iran because doing so would be very risky. My commercial activity is related to family investments in real estate and projects. I arrived in Colombia about 17 years ago. My children are Colombian, I have family here, and Colombia has historically been an open and friendly country to immigrants.

SEMANA: How does the Iranian regime that governs the population today function?

P.F.: To understand it, one must understand the nature of the Iranian regime. It is an Islamic republic, a theocracy in which the rulers claim divine authorization to rule and appropriate the nation's wealth. There is a very strong theological component that justifies the regime's abuses. The brutality with which it has repressed protests is extreme. To put it in a Colombian context, it would be as if a group like the ELN came to absolute power: a rigid ideology, no respect for freedom of expression, where opponents are considered enemies of the State. In Iran, they are also considered enemies of God.

SEMANA: How do you see the current context of the protests in Iran, which have been going on for weeks and have left thousands dead?

P.F.: Recent protests began with the bazaaris, merchants who are traditionally conservative and close to the regime. But the Iranian economy collapsed: very high inflation, unemployment, total loss of currency value, and an absence of hope. That directly affected trade. From there, the protests expanded. Today they include students, liberal sectors, the left, professionals, artists, and broad social sectors.

Most protesters identify with democratic values and show sympathy for Prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, who has defended democratic change from exile. His goal is not to take authoritarian power; he has been clear that the political system must be decided by referendum or elections. He defends a liberal and secular democracy intertwined with a constitutional monarchy—something present in Persian historical memory. According to academic analysis and observation of the protests, he is the most popular opposition figure in Iran today. Estimates indicate the regime has, at most, 20% support. More than 80% want change. The problem is that the regime has weapons, and the population does not. Even so, Iranian society has an advanced political consciousness. Persian culture is not fundamentalist: it is open, reflective, and tolerant.

SEMANA: Do you believe there is a real opportunity for the regime to fall?

P.F.: Yes, for several reasons. First, structural economic factors: water shortages and poverty in a country that should be very rich due to its oil, gas, and industry. Second, internal divisions within the regime: struggles over corruption, military power, and economic control. Third, almost universal opposition. The regime is repressive, but it has no credibility.

Change can happen if the protests continue—and they will, because they respond to a deep need of the population. What could accelerate that process? A general strike in key sectors like commerce or energy. Also, if sectors of the security apparatus or the Army switch sides. There is also the possibility of a limited military intervention by the United States or Israel. Today, that probability exceeds 50%. It wouldn't be an invasion, but attacks on specific military targets. If this coincides with internal protests, it could cause the regime's collapse. It wouldn't be a change imposed from the outside, but a combination of legitimate internal pressure and specific external intervention.

SEMANA: What is the difference between these protests and those following the death of Mahsa Amini?

P.F.: The murder of Mahsa Amini for not wearing the hijab gave birth to the "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement. Now, the protests are even more revolutionary, stronger, and much broader. Sectors that didn't protest before, like the bazaaris, are participating. It’s no longer just a movement of students or intellectuals; it is massive. The second difference is that, for the first time, the population is broadly expressing support for a specific political figure as a symbol of change.

SEMANA: What role should the United States play, particularly under Donald Trump?

P.F.: Trump is an unpredictable figure, but we have to be realistic. The United States acts out of interest, like any power. Right now, a democratic Iran—one that does not sponsor terrorism, respects the private sector, guarantees freedoms, and does not threaten Israel—is in the interest of the U.S. and the democratic world. The Obama and Biden administrations bet on appeasement, and that failed. Iran moved forward with its nuclear missile program and sponsored radical groups like Hezbollah and Hamas. A regime change in Iran would be positive for the economy, regional stability, and global security.

SEMANA: Why is it key for the Western world that the Iranian regime falls?

P.F.: Because of its strategic location, its influence in the Persian Gulf, its nuclear program, its sponsorship of terrorism, and its threat to Israel. A free Iran would be a key ally for energy stability, investment, and global security. Furthermore, a democratic Iran could play a positive role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The biggest obstacle to peace is the Islamic Republic, which rejects a two-state solution and finances radicalization.

SEMANA: There have been reports of Hezbollah's presence in Venezuela and Colombia. What risk does this represent?

P.F.: Hezbollah does not have ideological allies in Latin America, but it does have criminal and strategic alliances. It shares with groups like the ELN the use of drug trafficking, gold smuggling, and money laundering. In Colombia, people linked to Hezbollah have already been arrested, even in plans to assassinate Israeli citizens and monitor Americans.

With the situation in Venezuela, and Colombia increasingly aligned with interests contrary to those of the U.S.—along with the "Total Peace" policy that has given more power to the ELN—Hezbollah may see the country as a safer environment to operate. The Colombian state must strengthen surveillance in Islamic cultural centers, cooperate with international intelligence, and be aware of this risk. Obviously, most Muslims in Colombia are peaceful and respectable, but some centers can be infiltrated. Ignoring this would be a grave error.

SEMANA: What do you think of the Colombian government's actions?

P.F.: The Colombian government, and particularly President Petro, has not sufficiently condemned the massacres in Iran as he has done with the Palestinian issue. Why? Because the left maintains a romantic relationship with groups it considers anti-imperialist. Iran, for much of the Latin American left, is seen as an anti-American hero. Therefore, denunciations against the abuses of the Islamic regime in Iran are almost non-existent. It is an immoral stance.